“This newsletter is brought to you by a guy who sounds like he just walked out of the 1950s—which feels pretty fitting. Hope you enjoy it!” - Joe

The Intro:

Every year, another start-up claims it’s going to "turn social media on its head," and honestly? It’s starting to sound like a broken record. We all know what’s wrong: social media feels more like a billboard-filled media machine than a place for genuine connection. Ads dominate our feeds, our friends’ posts vanish into the algorithmic abyss, and we’re stuck cycling through the same three apps daily. A revolution sounds great—but here’s the thing: it’s not going to happen through software alone.

Sure, clever software plays a role. Filters made Instagram photos look polished, and TikTok’s algorithm keeps us scrolling for hours. But without the hardware shifts that enabled these innovations—like the back-facing camera for Instagram or the full-screen vertical display for TikTok—these platforms wouldn’t exist. It’s the hardware that sets the stage and the software that seals the deal.

As a digital product designer, I hate to admit this, but history doesn’t lie. Every groundbreaking social platform owes its success to a pivotal hardware innovation—a shift in the tools we use every day. Without the right tech at the right time, we’d still be emailing blurry photos and calling it "social media." It’s not just about clever apps or algorithms; it’s about hardware driving how we connect and share.

Until there’s a groundbreaking new development in hardware, we’re unlikely to see any new social media giants emerge. RIP to all the current "game-changing" start-ups.

Don't believe me? Take a look.

The Digital Camera:

It’s 2004. Digital cameras have become affordable, and suddenly everyone is capturing moments like a pro. But what do you do with all those photos? Taking them to your local grocery store to get them printed two weeks later is a hassle. Burning them onto a CD feels archaic. Emailing them one by one? Absolutely not. Enter Facebook: the perfect platform for uploading and sharing your digital photos directly from your desktop. Fueled by the rise of digital cameras and personal computers, Facebook wasn’t just another website—it became a cultural phenomenon, redefining how we connect through likes, comments, and even pokes.

The Smartphone Camera.

Fast-forward to 2010. By now, smartphones are everywhere, but their cameras are still kinda ehh. Then Apple drops the iPhone 4, and suddenly, mobile cameras are good enough to rival your point-and-shoot. Now, you’re not just texting—you’re snapping high-quality photos and sharing them instantly. Instagram seizes the moment with a simple idea: Make photo sharing as easy and beautiful as the photos themselves. Timing? Perfect. Execution? Flawless thanks to Instagram’s introduction of filters. These filters weren’t just gimmicks; they elevated average photos, making them look more professional and polished. It was the perfect marriage of hardware—the improved back-facing camera—and software, as filters transformed ordinary sunset photos into share-worthy masterpieces. This combination gave users the confidence to share their lives online, propelling Instagram to billion-dollar success.

The (Front Facing) Smartphone Camera.

2010 wasn’t just the year of better cameras—it was the year of the front-facing camera on iPhones. People often forget that the front-facing camera came after the back-facing camera, but this small hardware update sparked a massive cultural shift: selfies. Enter Snapchat, the app that built an entire experience around this new way of capturing photos. Its ephemeral messaging style and focus on quick, face-to-face (or face-to-phone) interactions ushered in a whole new wave of photo sharing. Snapchat didn’t just say "not every photo needs to be saved"—it encouraged users to take more front-facing photos than ever before, normalizing casual, unfiltered moments. By leveraging this hardware innovation, Snapchat introduced us to a revolutionary way to communicate. And all because of a little lens that flipped the script.

The Hardware Gap:

After Snapchat, things got quiet. From 2010 to 2017, there were no significant hardware innovations to shake up the landscape. Instead, the social media world saw a different kind of battle unfold. Facebook began to lose its grip, becoming the platform for older generations, while Snapchat and Instagram entered a fierce war for dominance. Instagram’s move to steal Snapchat’s Stories feature put immense pressure on Snap, even as Snapchat pushed forward with AR Lenses, showcasing glimpses of what augmented reality could do.

Despite these developments, the lack of transformative hardware during this time meant that social media innovation was more about iteration than revolution. The war between Snapchat and Instagram highlighted this stasis: without new hardware to inspire entirely new behaviors, platforms were forced to repurpose and refine. This uneasy equilibrium continued until a new player arrived on the scene—TikTok.

The iPhone X:

It wasn't until in 2017 when Apple released the iPhone X with its full-screen, vertical-first design. This wasn’t just a phone; it was an emersive media playground. At this point, both Instagram and Snapchat had made it possible to share videos as easy as sharing a photo but they forgot to take advantage of the new full screen hardware users were interacting with. Musical.ly introduced the concept that 100% full-screen vertical video was the most addictive way to consume content. This innovation didn’t go unnoticed. In 2017, ByteDance, the parent company of Douyin (China’s version of TikTok), acquired Musical.ly. The acquisition wasn’t just a merger of platforms; it was a masterstroke in pairing the most engaging way to consume media with ByteDance’s world-class recommendation algorithm. By combining Musical.ly’s vertical video format with Douyin’s cutting-edge AI, TikTok was born. The result? A scrolling experience so fresh, immersive, and personalized that it redefined how we consume content—one addictive, full-screen video at a time.

The not so lasting Social Media:

In the years since, we’ve seen clever ideas like Locket and BeReal. Locket took advantage of Apple’s home screen widgets—a new iOS update that allowed photos to appear directly on a user’s home screen without opening an app. This created a fun, lightweight way for friends to share moments. On the other hand, BeReal hacked existing hardware, using both the front and back cameras simultaneously to craft a unique photo-sharing experience. While both of these concepts were clever and engaging, they ultimately lacked the transformative power to create lasting impact.

These examples further prove the point: without significant shifts in hardware, even the most inventive software ideas struggle to become revolutionary. True monster companies—like TikTok, Snapchat, and Instagram—only emerge when transformative hardware changes redefine how we interact with technology every day.

The Question:

So, what’s next? Social media giants like TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat all owe their success to specific hardware revolutions. Until the next big leap—whether it’s AR glasses, immersive wearables, or something we can’t even imagine yet—we might not see another platform hit the same heights. The start-ups I mentioned earlier might break boundaries and create some noise, but when it comes to sparking the next cultural movement? That requires a fundamental shift in the devices we use every day—one that revolutionizes how we interact with technology.

Imagine a future where AR glasses seamlessly blend the digital and physical worlds, letting you share your day in real time, or wearables turn your every move into shareable content, effortlessly connecting your experiences to your networks. It’s not just about the technology itself; it’s about who’s ready to innovate and build on that foundation when the next big hardware update arrives. If history has taught us anything, the next revolution in social media is just one transformative hardware innovation away. Until then, we’re stuck with what we’ve got, waiting for the next true game-changer.

What do you think the next hardware breakthrough will be? Reply to this email to share your take or to tell me I’m full of shit. — I’m all ears.

It might be shit.

Thanks for reading.